Hey everybody well welcome back to our weekend edition where we cover off on everything to do with the stock crypto, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) Stock Price, and commodities markets for the week ahead and what a week we've just seen history making stuff the largest one day crash in facebook ever in terms of market capitalization size and it's not stopping yet let see try the qqq stock price.
we've got a pattern here that looks a little bit bearish but will fear prevail in the week ahead or are we
About to get greedy and buy that dip stay tuned to find out more it's sure to be a good one so the best place for us to start today's video is to discuss what happened in the friday session and it was up down and all around we had amazon's result of course boosting the market sentiment but by the time the market had opened the fade had already occurred what we talked about on the previous video literally happened during.
Tesla (TSLA) - Market capitalization:
The futures market action amazon ended up doing three thirteen point five four percent tesla did 3.61 and the banks were up for the session but the story goes deeper than that because we had the big big monthly number the jobs report and it looks like on the surface unemployment obviously dropped and we had a huge rate big beat here 467 000 jobs now you would think oh strong economy things are looking great but the
Problem is we're in a point where maybe good news is not so good due to the federal reserve changing up monetary policy if you're not aware obviously the federal reserve is looking at doing many rate hikes this year and potentially as much as four bringing the cash rate right back up and this hurts growth stocks so what we tended to see was a huge amount of volatility coming into this fact now the fed is not going to raise rates until
March it seems but let's have a look at what's going on here will we see a double rate hike is that something that's suddenly going to become on the table due to these strong numbers so the markets went up huge off the amazon result by the time the actual stock market opened though it was almost all the way back down to where it moved that two three hundred points of push-up on the nasdaq had been wiped off we then saw a rally through the session but
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Something interesting happened into the close this is where we usually see wall street start to act and they sold the close now this could be profit taking for the week as the week did end up profitable it could be hedging it could be any other reason so we don't look into this friday one as much as usual but certainly there was some volatility coming in here the dow jones ended up down or flat and the nasdaq ended up 1.33 percent the big story though is in
The sectors so when we take a look at what actually happened for the session it was mostly wall street picking up growth sectors tan the solar index internet stocks and healthcare and everything like that did okay but realistically it was the defensives that were getting beaten around things like consumer staples things like utilities they did not have a good friday session a stark contrast from what we've seen previously in declining days we usually
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Tend to see this flight to safety which is consumer staples and flight to utilities so this is where our weak analysis comes into it there's no question we need to look at this from the top down approach we need to have a look over the weekly data and what is that telling us about what really is being positioned throughout the week and if we look at this you'll notice it is of course energy the outlier the best performing sector of 2021 continues to
Come through so does financials make sense higher interest rates higher profit margin but here's where things get really strange gold performed 3.75 percent yet also all of these high growth stocks semiconductors solar consumer discretionary they all did actually quite well they were the best performing sectors for the week whereas the utility sector that the staples all of these more defensive that you would think
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Would have been performing better due to the volatility were actually down this is showing that wall street is buying this dip to a degree and whether we see new lows or not and we're not sure of that just yet wall street certainly is positioning itself in growth more over the last week of volatility than they were in the previous weeks let's take a look at why some of these reasons may be happening one of the reasons is the options market if you're not aware of
The options market you don't understand it make sure you subscribe to the channel because of course we do cover this in great detail do with tesla the s p 500 and everything else and when fear arises obviously we have two main things going on in the markets fear and greed and when we have a lot of fear tends to really affect retail community traders smaller traders have been literally adding to shorts and adding and adding and the fear in the market was greater
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Than it was during the pandemic low so that is a higher level of puts were being opened we knew that this was a sign that probably by the dip was going to play out but this doesn't stop just here it goes much further than that because the volatility we've always said in 2022 is going to be extreme this is a trader's year day-to-day trading investing at key levels that you believe in companies and you want to hold them for years that's the type of thing that
You should be looking at swing trading for now when the vix is above 20 is not the way to go and if we think about the final two days of the january month when we have these rallies like we saw we get bad results in the next month on average we actually lose 3.1 percent on the index there's probably a bigger story in terms of how much we really lose and this goes all the way back to the 50s so there's not many times this has happened but when it happens it tends to lead to
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Only a 30 up market also down 5 in january when we get these types of data stats what we tend to do is spill over into february and while the next 11 months tends to be relatively positive which means that our medium to long term should be bullish we can deal with some great trading throughout the february months only 33 percent of the time is the market bullish throughout february let's move over to technology here we
Know it's a bit weak here seasonality we've talked about this chart almost every day this year and that's because it's a great thing to look at and we expect that kind of rally coming through march into april it's maybe a sell the rumor with the fed and by the fact another thing that we share on our twitter here is earnings data now a lot of people don't understand earnings data and what we mean by this whether there's a beat rate or a miss rate this is just
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Really the expectations of generally these economists out there it doesn't matter too much but when you have a beat season which is looking at 70 plus come the close 68 to 70 plus it generally means that the expectations of the market were met and the price is fair the key here is though it's not really about these data earnings it's about the guidance moving forward so no matter what stock you're looking at the earnings call the guidance that's where
The key is and that's where we've seen many stocks fall over a lot of stocks that were doing well all of a sudden have dropped and this goes for things like facebook if you actually listen to the earnings call it's almost like zuckerberg is like i don't really know what's going on i'm going to go over to the metaverse and that's what we're doing and he's losing sight of the core business wall street hates that they've bashed the stock for that reason the
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Same thing's happening with tesla with this idea that maybe they're focusing too much on robots and not enough on scaling their core business at this stage it's a big problem and i'm sure many people agree with that out there but let's get into the technical analysis let's talk about the vix here the volatility index and the vix is still high it's above 20. we know that whenever the markets are above high there's that bearish tendency and fear
Tendency in the markets options become more expensive volatility increases day trading and scalping becomes one of the best ways of doing things and of course buying the dip is about buying quality companies that you want to hold potentially for a while because you may not be able to predict the bottom that well the other thing that we saw happen on the friday session and this is where the concerns of the market volatility really come out
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Is why is this two years still going up the strong's jobs number has really led to a bit of the flag pattern coming through and here's the thing with flags we've obviously got the flag itself the pole length and that pole length becomes the extrapolated area that we believe the market could get to so is this predicting a 1.4 to 1.45 percent two-year yield rate this is basically saying that the feds over here saying okay we're
Maybe going to do this the market's saying well wait a second we think that you're going to have to raise rates at even faster rate due to inflation concerns with any bull market you need this to kind of come down and stabilize at this point it's getting out of control and it goes the same for the 10-year 1.9 percent we're getting close to that one point nine five two percent marker here a new all-time high weekly close in
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Terms of the last two years for the 10-year rate so inflation is a big concern here in the markets we know that at least temporarily these higher interest rate yields can affect growth stocks and this is one that we continue to have to watch remember we've got four factors to really show us a turnaround and one of those factors is seeing this yield this 10-year rate the two-year rate coming back down they have not done that at this stage so
Continue to watch this it's looking like it could be an incredible volatile week with big swings both to the bullish and bearish slide for the week ahead let's move over to the gold markets they're clearly confused as well big sell-offs followed by large gains we continue to not be able to break the 1810 level i think day traders are going to be watching this very heavily for a daily close to show they can go bullish on something like gold or something like
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Silver and the trend line remains intact for now but the pressure here on this particular metal is extreme huge amounts of hedges going both ways and a lot of manipulation not as easy to trade as something like oil which has finally hit our next take profit congratulations i'm going to give everyone a clap that's been trading oil and holding through well done 92 dollars in fact almost 93 reached phenomenal stuff i mean oil it could be the easiest to track two
Years worth of trading i've ever seen on this metal and of this commodity and really when we think about oil it's just such a great technical here and so so many reasons why it's been so fantastic but you know where it gets even more crazy when you think about what happens if it breaches past the 92 level because then all of a sudden we start talking about this 100 and 304 zone and we start to talk about will oil ever go back
To those all-time peaks you know eight that was a phenomenal period remember oil got to 145 a barrel so are we in some type of super boom here across all commodity space i'm starting to think so and while oil is at a resistance and we expect this to be a bit of a flip-flop area for it and we need to watch that i think this is going to be a key point to watch for the week ahead it just brings back the point that we have these epic games going on in so many of these
Commodities right now add a resistance watch the week ahead if it breaks through this level comes back down tests it it could be a great buy zone for people wanting to get into the space and if it rejects here then of course we'll be covering it every day of the next week let's move over to stocks then we'll discuss indices and of course crypto and we'll talk here about tesla and tesla's a in a really weird spot at the moment
It's holding above our long lasting trend line fantastic even when the market got underneath it was quickly rejected above that and we are fans of day trading this particular stock possibly one of the best moving stocks in the markets if not the best at this stage you'll notice that the daily here has some rejection candles on it and i think we need to zoom in here and understand what the psychology is we've got a bit of a bullish kind of looking
Candle which actually turns out to be a bit of a hanging man candle bearishness that closes right on the same spot a bearish looking candle and then some bullish stuff so clearly the market is trying to figure out a fair price here on tesla we have our low sitting around that 880 and we have our high sitting around 9 42 and this brings us to when we discuss about options because what do we know about tesla it gravitates to these circular numbers things like one
Thousand dollars things like 950 dollars so if we breach 950 this week where is the logical conclusion for the stock to go to a thousand and i think the options market shows this is clearly where people have got interest there's the 950 strike and look at this the thousand strike huge amounts of calls on this also there's some crazy cool bets that are really far off i think these were made into the earnings a lot of people got carried away part of the reason why
Tesla is so far down is not necessarily just the fundamentals and what the story is it's because retail went too bullish on it and wall street doesn't want to pay those options off so look at this we've got the thousand dollar strike and then of course we've got around this 800 strike and even lower huge amounts of puts so there's a big range here opening up for tesla for the week but a thousand dollars remains one of those key zones and 950 to a thousand should be a good
Day trade if it comes through obviously place your own trades and consider your own systems but it's an interesting zone to be watching let's move over to amazon the talk of the town because of the huge move after hours this is unusual you are experiencing something that you don't often see in stock markets and it's awesome to witness history in some ways because guess what it's history it's it's kind of cool to be there i've been in many history points in my 12 years
Here in the markets and it's i guess it's actually now 14 years but yeah i've been here for a long time i've seen plenty of history stuff like the euro swiss and of course when they took the floor off that a phenomenal moment and i think we've witnessed another one facebook and amazon some of the biggest switches we've ever seen with mega caps and this is not usual markets which again leads us to think are we in unusual times where the markets will
Continue to show fear and volatility up until the fed gives some certainty into the march interest rate game well here's the problem with amazon we have a high we have a low we have an open and a close and they're sitting at the same level so it's a long leg doji at the resistance we thought there would be a fade remember after hours the market went even higher it was like 32 70 or 33 almost and we suspected the
Fade would occur previous support is too much for this right now we've got the resistance you close above here all right let's ramp amazon if you continue to close underneath here though do we fill the gap certainly a trade that could be open for the week the gap trades have been very good and i think amazon presents this because when you look at the surface yes the earnings results there everything like that but is it that great well some people would
Argue maybe not due to guidance so i think that this resistance is certainly a great level day traders coming out looking for key zones for the week ahead as well let's move over to some other key zones that's arc k and this is still in massive decline so we haven't seen a full recovery here but something like these hyper stocks are starting to turn around to a degree huge volumes nice support 20 moving average the red line here on
The breakdown and if we breach through this 20 moving average what have we done troughs peak higher trough higher peak 20 that would be a sequence that would pretty much prove to us the first stage of full recoveries in this and we've argued all year so far that when the hyper stocks turn around they could be the best trade of 2022 because they were hated in 2021 people still hate them yet many of you
Rightly believe some of these stocks some of them not all but some of them are the future and that is why if you pick the right ones and you get the right turnaround story you could be in the biggest amount of money for the years so an exciting sector that we'll continue to follow up on also tan solar index or the solar sector this is another one that looks very similar 20 moving average trops peak
Higher trough will we get the turnaround story in over the next week or two weeks here it is that's how you spot a bottom i'll be doing a special video talking about spotting bottoms and how to find them and i think you should definitely subscribe if you're interested in that because it's going to be a great one we haven't done it yet on the channel but here we have another great base and a potential for a first stage recovery for
A massive sector and if we think about how much it's down it's down over 43 percent from just those peaks not even the highs that were reached before some really great gains here in some of these iwm showing a similar thing we've got that resistance now we've obviously got the dip down do we create trough peak higher trough and then higher peak bulls will be looking for that they'll you'll need to break through 210 and remember iwm is the small caps it's a small 2000
Stocks it's got wyckoff distribution on at the moment the false break to the upside the sell-off this cannot be ignored until we get through 210 we can't really be sure that it's a broad-based buy-up because this is this particular sector or index is showing us weakness in the market it's it's no doubt showing us the economy is maybe not as good as people suspect because it's done nothing for a long time it's broken lower it needs to
Break high to confirm to a lot of people the recovery is in let's move over to the nasdaq or qqq let's look at talk about some of these numbers most of you are trading this right now i can see it in the comments the big swings got a lot of people excited this is the real market so it doesn't include the futures action you'll notice the gap here but the big thing is look at where the resistance was where the support is where the rally came up to similar level
It then sold off the 14 8 near the close and this week i think we all know where the zones are breach underneath this big weakness could come through and certainly algorithms will be all over that 14-4 zone if we come down break past the 14-8 plus zone day traders are sure to try to bring that thing and fill the gap these are the two areas it's a great time to be in the markets as a day trader and scalper because depending on
Your systems we're getting some fantastic levels and of course breaking down these levels algorithms are going so fast and you can see it just playing out here if we go to the daily you'll notice as well you can see the wicks both sides the buying the selling obviously the hanging man candle the weakness that's ensued since that so we're not out of the bullish or bearish moves at this stage we're stuck in limbo land where we've got to be nimble and
Quick and the weekly shows the same thing buying wicks selling wicks stuck in the middle not very decisive at this stage the market's volatile we know that and it's going to continue to be so it looks like now we mentioned at the start of the video the evening star pattern on the spy this is of course the buying then the gap up then the candle then it gaps down goes bearish and this tends to lead to further selling we saw a morning star
Over here similar type of candle pattern one of the best out there lead to three big days of buying now if we get a new low and it closes below that point not what happened on the friday session do we expect selling i think the answer is probably yes from a technical perspective that's what you've got to be looking towards so at the same time that that occurs you'll be seeing the nasdaq going through that support and there's just so much synergy between these
Markets all showing that but here's the thing with the spy is if that does occur where's the next drop after that point well it could be going back to test 430 and any close underneath 430 because remember every single one of these has been a wick will lead to the bears being in full control of this market getting underneath the 50 exponential moving average on the weekly one of our best support by the deep areas which we used
Previously to get these great rallies and it's just you know it's one of those points that you're going to need to watch 4 30 4 30 4 30 is a key zone for the week ahead and when you look at the options it is completely indecisive the puts are so low all of the puts that we thought would expire the market held right above them remember 450 was where all those puts were entered guess what they didn't get paid that's what we're all about
Understanding these market dynamics they didn't get paid at 450 it all wiped out every single bit of profit that they were trying to get didn't get anything and then the market expired just above that so if the market goes short it's kind of open this week to go short and we know that around that 465 470 area is where the calls are so we've got that upside potential as well so from the bear perspective they've got a lot of room that they can move there's not that
Many puts open through the 430 for through the 420 it's actually well lower than that from the bull perspective we'll watch this strike very very heavily and we'll come back and continue to look at that one it's going to be a big deal now here's where markets get even crazier we had the jobs number and guess what well if you were looking at our analysis on the previous session and you were
Trading ethereum i've got to say congratulations to you what a fantastic trade bam straight into the 3000 fantastic stuff supports become resistance a nice little break out past this resistance here this little bullish hammer and then it was on and it went to 3 000. it's a great sign first sign here for the crypto markets that people are getting faithful in it again and you know one of the things that's strange about it
Is the fad that was at all-time highs people were really really down on crypto maybe not nfts but certainly down on crypto the bullish hammer seems to have flowed through for ethereum it's not even arguably probably the better chart here than bitcoin and the weekly 50 exponential moving average has been hit at this stage so of course further bullish pressure we need to see it break through 3 000 probably come back down and then go towards this level here
Which will be the 33 50 3400 zone that's the next big resistance here for ethereum but as we know bitcoin really rules in terms of markets and we've just witnessed something that we have not seen even if you put this on a log chart and you have a look at it depending on whether you're using log or not in crypto then you'll notice we just broke the trend line down so this is the first time in bitcoin's decline that it has broken
Above the 20 moving average also this red line here broken above if the market then pulls back where do we expect to see buyers come back in the 20 moving average most likely will be met by by demand sitting around that 39 000. so this is a big sign here for the crypto markets is it something of a precursor for the stock markets as well we know where our buyers are we know where our sales are to a degree from key levels here in the markets we have to remain
Partially neutral because the markets are in a state of flux and every earnings result and every day is is seems like another trading day with a different direction but we do have key zones and bitcoin is kind of showing us hey wait a second we've hit that resistance that we expected to get to but at the same time it's broken past and showing the first stages of recovery this is something that many crypto players out there have been looking for
And of course at the same time we have decent volume coming through on it btc shorts is not going up that's also a good sign so that's not going up it's stabilizing if not going down the whales are not selling off this particular thing right now something important and really the rest of the week it all comes down to just understanding that we don't have that much economic news until thursday that's when we get the cpi result out of
The us and it's mostly earnings and what the market feels like doing so because it's what the market feels like doing we're in for an interesting week of incredible volatility great key levels and what a time it is to be a trader scalper and possibly even investor in some of the key sectors and hyper stocks we hope you enjoyed the video if you do please remember subscribe smash that like button as well guys and i want to know
Are you a bull or a bear for this week because it is going to be an absolute smash out let's see let's find out and we'll do it together see you soon
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