US Stock Market S&P 500 (SPY) | Nasdaq (NDX)

All right stock market is one two three months uh we're going to look at the spy i left qqq on here but i'm actually not going to share the qqq oh maybe i will maybe i'll just put it on there for you to see uh US Stock Market S&P 500 (SPY) Nasdaq (NDX) so let's take a look here at the spy i'm going to move from this to spy and look right over here at these cycle.

Patterns in here i'm gonna i did a little lesson and i'm gonna extend uh expand on the lesson uh in uh this uh like i did last week so again this is cycle analysis uh what i want you to see is the rising phases that have been in here for all this period of time these are the rising minor cycles right in here as you could see there's about three of them in each of these dominant patterns that you see right

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There so let's take a little closer look so you can see right in here at these last cycles and you'll get a great idea of where we are so this is uh the minor cycle right there and right there are three of them here as illustrated on the bottom this is the basic look at the cycle if they were moving sideways well then each of these cycles would be up and down to the same levels however

There was an uptrend in here and this establishes the uptrend as you can see as each of these cycles is illustrated just as it be as it occurred in the uptrend all of them making higher highs all of them having higher troughs and then a higher high made in here now if you're a subscriber of ours and you look at the daily chart there's actually three of the minor cycles right in here that you see that show up on the daily

Chart and so each of these cycles right up over here made up of three cycles right in here as you can see where are we right now well this cycle took out this bottom and that says that this whole period in here is likely to decline and it says that rallies in here are likely to fail you can see what right what happened right in there is well that was up uh s p e 500 was up four percent for the week is now more like one and a half

Percent and this area here is where all of the cycles uh do line up together and it gives you this yellow period of risk so this decline right over here which was 12 percent is very likely to be taken out down over here we're looking at this being a 12 percent correction and potentially 15 percent correction here big support at the major 23.6 percent that's at about 4 or 11 on the spy

And in here we have these one two and three cycles right there that comes out into sometime around the mid-march or early April period and this should bring you well the decline we're in right now another attempted rally then a bigger decline down over here and another attempted rally and a bigger decline right there you can see the way this sets up and each of these were positive cycles and once this made a lower bottom here it turned the trend

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Down and now we're looking at this right over here this cycle right here made up of the three moves right there and this is a very basic cycle analysis lesson that i'm showing you it makes the highest probability that the stock market will continue down into mid-march to early April as we can as we show you right and here these two vertical dash dotted blue lines are the time frame

Uh the time zone for when this declining phase should end and then getting back up to this right over here if you remember earlier in the show when i talked about the bond market and gave that great lesson on uh yields i said that sometime in probably uh in the spring there would be a rebound in the treasury market and i thought that that would coincide with the rebound in the stock market well this is probably that period there but then it's going to get

Into more risky periods out over here so lots of people that say to me well the stock market is about to blast through the highs well anything could happen and i could be wrong and i would have to reanalyze it if that happened but right now the highest probability is that rallies will fail and the stock market will move down in a significant way so this is the one two three moves that

I'm talking about here in the daily chart if i switch over to that daily chart right there you can see in here that's the setup right in there that we're looking at this rally came hit the cell zone actually left an abandoned baby here is the one two and three moves that we're talking about that i showed you on that weekly chart and that is likely to bring well some more weakness out over here for maybe a couple days an attempted rally

And then bigger declines coming out over here into that period into march so that's to look at the daily chart on the spy here's a look at that weekly chart and those three moves i just showed you down over here uh likely to bring you lower prices i would say reasonable to be down 13 and a half to 16 percent by the time this uh is over with on the downside and i told you i would share the qqq so i'll put that up right over here i need to

Get the uh qqq uh with ah i'm sorry i don't have it on qqq i have it on ndx so lots of people ask about that but i have it on ndx and you can see in here the same pattern on ndx and the likelihood that there uh that this failure that we saw right over here is the kind of action that we're going to see as it got into the cell zone and again our target down over here under 13 000 that's 12 900

At that major 38.2 percent so uh so i i i had put up on this slide that i was going to show the Nasdaq uh and i forgot to change the slide so i decided to bring that up so uh let's look at the stock market choppy uh wide swings the biggest volatility that maybe we have ever seen on point movements, of course, coming off all-time highs and the likelihood that the stock market will continue to the downside

Into the mid-march to early april time frame is where that sets up right now you